🔮 PREDICTION MARKETS POLYMARKET · KALSHI

Prediction Markets

Crowd-aggregated probabilities from Polymarket & Kalshi — live volumes, trend direction, and where GeoWire's model diverges from consensus.

7 active markets tracked · Updated — · ⚠ Not financial advice

Ceasefire Timeline — Polymarket

Cumulative probability of ceasefire announcement by horizon
Source: Polymarket · as of Mar 26, 2026 · Horizontal bars = crowd probability. Vertical line = GeoWire model estimate.

All Active Markets

Crowd forecast vs. GeoWire model. Green = GeoWire above market. Red = below.

Insider Trading Watch

Form 4 filings since Day — of conflict — executives buying their own convictions
⚠ Insider filings are public information via SEC Edgar. This is not evidence of illegal activity. Informational only. Do not trade on this data.

Our Edge vs. The Market

Where GeoWire's model systematically diverges — and why
📉 Recession Command Center · ⚡ Energy Command Center · 📊 Macro Pulse · 🧪 Test ceasefire timelines in Scenario Lab →
🔒 Coming soon: Real-time divergence alerts when model probability diverges from prediction markets by 10pp+, model vs. market tracker, and historical accuracy scores.