Recession Command Center
Is recession risk rising or falling? What is driving it? Where do data and markets disagree? What changed today? All four questions answered in one place.
Recession Risk Overview
Model confidence: MEDIUMRecession Factor Heatmap
10 macro factor families scored 0–100. Click any factor to explore.What Changed Today
Full Log →Where Data Disagrees With Markets
Divergence often contains the highest-value signal.Historical Precedents
Similarity scores based on oil shock magnitude, rate environment, and fiscal capacity.Model Methodology
How the GeoWire Recession Model Works
GeoWire scores 10 macro factor families from 0–100, applies weights based on historical recession predictive power, and calculates a weighted composite probability. The model is intentionally transparent: you can see every factor score, every driver, every source, and every weight.
We show confidence levels because uncertainty is information, not weakness. When 7+ factors agree on direction, confidence is HIGH. When factors are mixed, it's MEDIUM or LOW — and that tells you something important about the current environment.
| Factor Family | Weight | Key Series |
|---|
Scores of 0–35 = Low stress. 36–55 = Elevated. 56–75 = Deteriorating. 76–100 = Stress/Crisis.