MACRO
📊 PULSE DASHBOARD
Macro Pulse Dashboard
10 factor families. Each drives recession probability. Ordered by weight — click any panel to drill into FRED data, second-order effects, and what to watch.
Factor Scores — At a Glance
Click any pill to explore that factor in depthAll 10 Macro Factors
Ordered by model weight. Click "Explore →" for FRED charts, cascade effects, and watchlist items.Cross-Factor Insight
6 of 10 factors DETERIORATING or STRESS.
Mixed signal from Labor Market (still STABLE — unemployment 4.2%, claims rising but not recessionary)
and Market Signals (S&P +9.7% but rally driven by 2 sectors; breadth narrowing, VIX elevated at 26).
The Supply & Logistics factor (score 78, STRESS) is the highest-risk single factor — Hormuz 97% closed is an unprecedented physical disruption with no short-term fix. Inflation Internals are the most dangerous for the Fed — import prices running 2× forecast means the path to cuts is closing fast.
Key divergence: Labor Market has not broken yet — this is either the last shoe to drop (historical pattern) or the resilience that prevents recession. The next 2 NFP prints are the decisive data.
The Supply & Logistics factor (score 78, STRESS) is the highest-risk single factor — Hormuz 97% closed is an unprecedented physical disruption with no short-term fix. Inflation Internals are the most dangerous for the Fed — import prices running 2× forecast means the path to cuts is closing fast.
Key divergence: Labor Market has not broken yet — this is either the last shoe to drop (historical pattern) or the resilience that prevents recession. The next 2 NFP prints are the decisive data.