Scenario probabilities are model-inferred estimates based on historical conflict pattern analysis. They are NOT predictions. All scenarios carry significant uncertainty. The ⚫ Model-inferred badge indicates where human analyst consensus has not been established.
Probabilities sum to less than 100% — unknown/unmodeled outcomes account for the remainder.
| Scenario | WTI Oil | Gold | S&P 500 | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Ceasefire (<30 days) | -22% | -12% | +6-8% | +3% |
| Negotiated Settlement (30–90 days) | -10-15% | -6-8% | +3-5% | +1-2% |
| Extended Conflict (90+ days) | +35-45% | +10-20% | -18% | ±3% |
| Hormuz Closure | +60-80% | +25-35% | -25-35% | -5-8% |