Methodology & Trust

GeoWire is an independent recession intelligence platform. We track how geopolitical shocks, energy crises, monetary policy shifts, and supply chain disruptions change recession probability — before consensus catches up.

We are not affiliated with any government, financial institution, or political party. All outputs carry confidence ratings.

The 10-Factor Recession Model

Our 12-month recession probability score is a weighted composite of ten macro and geopolitical factors. Each factor is scored on a 0–100 scale and combined using a proprietary weighting model calibrated against post-WWII US recession history.

Energy Shock
Oil price surge relative to 12-month baseline. Energy cost pass-through to CPI is the fastest recession transmission channel.
Weight: HIGH
Yield Curve
10Y–2Y Treasury spread. Inversion has preceded every US recession since 1970 with a 6–18 month lag.
Weight: HIGH
Supply Chain Disruption
Global shipping stress index including Hormuz flow, Suez disruptions, and container rate volatility.
Weight: HIGH
Equity Market Stress
S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high, VIX level, and credit spread widening.
Weight: MEDIUM
Labor Market
Unemployment trend, initial jobless claims, and Sahm Rule threshold proximity.
Weight: MEDIUM
Inflation / Real Rates
CPI vs. Fed Funds Rate spread. Real rate compression destroys business investment confidence.
Weight: MEDIUM
Consumer Confidence
University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys. Leading indicator for spending collapse.
Weight: MEDIUM
Housing / Credit
30-year mortgage rate, housing starts, and consumer credit delinquency rates.
Weight: LOW-MEDIUM
Geopolitical Risk Premium
GeoWire's composite geopolitical stress index. Quantifies uncertainty spillover into business planning.
Weight: MEDIUM
Trade / Dollar
DXY index trend, trade balance deterioration, and import price inflation from currency effects.
Weight: LOW-MEDIUM

Confidence Levels

Every data point and claim on GeoWire carries a confidence badge. These are honest descriptions of sourcing methodology — not certainty levels.

Badge Level Meaning
🟢 Confirmed Official source + 2+ independent sources agree
🟡 Multi-source 2+ sources confirm, but no official statement
🟠 Single-source One outlet only — treat with appropriate skepticism
⚫ Model-inferred AI or analyst estimate, not independently sourced
⚠️ Disputed Conflicting claims from multiple credible sources

Data Sources

GeoWire pulls from the following APIs and databases. All data is attributed on each card.

FRED (Federal Reserve)
Treasury yields, DXY, S&P 500, unemployment, CPI, GDP components. Primary macroeconomic data source.
BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Jobs reports, initial jobless claims, PPI, CPI granular breakdowns.
EIA (Energy Information Admin)
US gasoline prices, natural gas spot, crude inventories, and refinery utilization.
CoinGecko
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and PAXG (gold price proxy) live prices. No API key required.
Kalshi / Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities for ceasefire, oil price, and recession events. Marked as DEMO until live API connects.
GDELT Project
Global news intelligence feed. GeoWire filters for conflict, economic, and diplomatic events via GDELT's event database.
IMF PortWatch
Strait vessel flow data for Hormuz, Suez, and Bab el-Mandeb. Updated daily from satellite-derived AIS signals.
GeoWire Intelligence Desk
Analyst estimates, scenario modeling, and inferred conclusions. Always marked as Model-inferred (⚫).

Editorial Principles